Session Notes: Roundtable 3: Capacity Is Strategy – Making Resource Reality a Binding Portfolio Constraint
Session: Roundtable 3: Capacity Is Strategy – Making Resource Reality a Binding Portfolio Constraint Event: PPM Summit Basel 2026
Recorded: 22 April 2026 at 15:46 Published: 22 April 2026 at 15:46 attendees-only
capacity-managementportfolio-strategyresource-constraintsbiotech-planningtalent-acquisitionforecastingorganizational-culturedata-qualityplanning-toolsrisk-management
Executive Summary
This roundtable revealed capacity management as a critical but poorly executed strategic constraint in biotech portfolio management. Participants from small biotechs to large pharma shared experiences of systematic underestimation, cultural barriers to early escalation, and the fundamental challenge that specialized talent cannot be easily substituted like financial resources. The discussion highlighted a persistent gap between strategic intent and operational reality in treating capacity as a true portfolio constraint.
Full Notes
The Reality Gap Between Strategy and Operations
The session opened with stark acknowledgment that while organizations claim to treat capacity as a strategic constraint, reality differs significantly. A J&J representative noted that at the corporate level, capacity is considered strategically, but "as soon as you start diving down or function then it kind of falls apart." Small biotechs face particular challenges with expert dependencies—the same specialized people are needed across multiple programs, creating inevitable bottlenecks. One participant described the recurring scenario: "we could see this coming. We said this is coming. But when we get to that, the expectation is still that it needs to be success." This disconnect between forecasting constraints and executive expectations creates systematic pressure throughout the organization.
The Three-Month Reality of Talent Acquisition
A critical insight emerged around hiring timelines, particularly in European markets. German biotech participants emphasized that even with approved budgets, acquiring specialized talent requires minimum three months—often longer for senior roles. This lag time makes capacity constraints more binding than financial ones, yet portfolio planning often assumes instant scalability. The session revealed how this timing disconnect forces organizations into reactive mode, constantly playing catch-up rather than proactively managing capacity. One participant noted the fundamental question: "I'm not going to hire the people which I might not need in the end so how how actually to deal with that?" This dilemma between advance hiring costs and capacity risks remains largely unresolved across organizations.
Systematic Optimism and Planning Bias
Perhaps the most candid discussion centered on systematic underestimation in biotech planning. An experienced participant shared that "roughly 90% of our projects and programs take longer, require more people and more costly than we anticipate. It's not because we're stupid. It is because we are far too optimistic." This optimism stems largely from senior management pressure and working backwards from fixed launch dates. The solution proposed was risk-adjusted forecasting—using probability-weighted scenarios instead of single-point estimates. Rather than forecasting exactly 10 people needed, planners should model scenarios: 50% probability of needing zero (if phase fails), 50% probability of needing full capacity, generating a more realistic expected value for planning purposes.
Cultural Barriers to Early Escalation
The discussion revealed significant cultural challenges preventing early problem identification. Current industry pressures—reorganizations, layoffs, general uncertainty—make people reluctant to admit capacity constraints. As one participant observed: "it's even more difficult for people to say, 'Oh, I can't do it. It's too much.' Because you want to have your head below the line, not to increase too loudly that you can't do." This creates a vicious cycle where problems are reported too late for effective intervention. The proposed solution involves leadership taking proactive advocacy roles—project managers should shield their teams from having to directly escalate capacity issues, instead building regular capacity discussions into leadership routines.
Data Quality and Tool Integration Challenges
Despite advanced planning tools like PlanView, many organizations still rely on Excel-based models for capacity management. Participants described the persistent challenge of data quality and the burden of maintaining complex planning systems. A key tension emerged between using functional experts versus dedicated planners for data input. While dedicated planners reduce expert burden, they can create ownership gaps where functional experts feel less accountable for data accuracy. The session concluded that tool sophistication alone cannot solve capacity management—success requires governance, culture, and sustained leadership commitment to treating capacity constraints as real and binding strategic factors.
Action Items
- → Portfolio managers — Implement six-month early warning system for capacity constraints open
- → Project leaders — Take proactive advocacy role for team capacity limits open
Key Insights (16)
summary
Resource constraints drive portfolio reality
Capacity management emerges as strategic constraint — small biotechs struggle with overlapping expert dependencies across multiple programs, while larger organizations face gaps between strategic thinking and operational execution.
Cedric Kahl capacity-managementresource-constraintsportfolio-strategy
summary
Forecasting requires risk-adjusted estimates
Probabilistic resource planning proves more accurate — using 50% probability scenarios instead of deterministic forecasts helps align expected capacity needs with reality.
Cedric Kahl forecastingrisk-managementresource-planning
summary
Cultural barriers prevent early escalation
Fear of job security delays problem reporting — industry pressure and reorganizations make people hesitant to admit resource constraints until crisis points.
Cedric Kahl organizational-culturecommunicationearly-warning
summary
Data quality challenges persist across tools
Excel-based models remain common despite tool complexity — organizations struggle with data maintenance burden and functional expert engagement in planning systems.
Cedric Kahl data-qualityplanning-toolssystem-integration
key Insight
Optimism bias undermines capacity planning
90% of projects take longer and require more people than initially estimated, largely driven by senior management expectations and working backwards from fixed launch dates. This systematic underestimation creates recurring capacity crises.
Cedric Kahl planning-biasproject-managementexecutive-pressure
key Insight
Functional experts vs. planners creates ownership gaps
Dedicated planners reduce expert burden but create responsibility disconnect — functional experts often feel less accountable for data accuracy when planners handle system inputs, requiring careful governance balance.
Cedric Kahl organizational-designdata-ownershipfunctional-roles
key Insight
Non-fungible nature of specialized talent
Molecular biologists cannot be easily substituted unlike budget resources — yet portfolio management often treats capacity as transferable, leading to critical skill bottlenecks in therapeutic area transitions.
Cedric Kahl talent-managementskill-specializationresource-fungibility
key Insight
Three-month hiring lag creates strategic constraint
German biotech hiring timelines force advance planning — even with budget approval, specialized talent acquisition requires months, making capacity constraints more binding than financial ones.
Cedric Kahl hiring-constraintstalent-acquisitionplanning-horizons
action Item
Advocate proactively for team capacity
Project leaders → Take responsibility for advocating team workload limits to leadership rather than expecting individual scientists to escalate overwhelm directly.
Cedric Kahl leadership-advocacy
action Item
Implement six-month early warning system
Portfolio managers → Establish formal process to flag capacity constraints 6 months in advance, providing sufficient time for leadership response and resource allocation.
Cedric Kahl early-warningprocess-improvement
quote
Budget focus misses human reality
The entire focus is on what can be but what don't and it can be done rather easy is consolidate the portfolio... identify where you think your critical human resource lies they don't just you can with some degree of circumstances go and hire people.
Cedric Kahl resource-managementhiring-constraints
quote
Systematic optimism creates problems
We are far too optimistic in our plan... roughly 90% of our projects and programs take longer, require more people and more costly than we anticipate. It's not because we're stupid. It is because we are far too optimistic.
Cedric Kahl planning-biasproject-estimates
quote
Fear prevents honest communication
The industry is currently changing. There's a lot of pressure and there are a lot of reorgs and people are let go. So it's even more difficult for people to say, 'Oh, I can't do it. It's too much.' Because you want to have your head below the line.
Cedric Kahl organizational-culturejob-security
resource
Risk-adjusted forecasting methodology
Instead of deterministic estimates, use probability-weighted scenarios (e.g., 50% chance need 10 people, 50% chance need 0) to generate expected values for capacity planning.
Cedric Kahl forecasting-methodsrisk-management
resource
PlanView portfolio management system
Tool mentioned for holistic portfolio analysis, though participants noted integration challenges with other systems and data quality issues.
Cedric Kahl portfolio-toolssoftware-systems
resource
Excel-based capacity modeling
High-level skill-based resource models combining ongoing projects with pipeline initiatives to identify gaps and build scenarios for decision-making.
Cedric Kahl capacity-modelingplanning-tools
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Apr 22, 2026 Capacity Is Strategy — Making Resource Reality a Binding Portfolio Constraint - Transcript 00:00:00 : We're a small biotech. So it's more than figure out how to do the work which as a head of project so I know when there's a big priority leadership sometimes wants this to happen. So it's just being really clear about why we're doing certain activities at certain time but it's all the same thing across the project. So things then you reach the point that there are some bottlenecks because we do we do uh especially in a sort of we have a lot of programs people that are really the experts. Nobody else supports that, but it's a lot. Well, the production spot for this game overlaps with the production spot completely different and we're just trying to manage it. It's like we could see this coming. We said this is coming. But when we get to that, the expectation is still that it needs to be success. Just you sort of do it and get through it. Way to manage it. Yeah. Any other experience? Thank you for your inputs and you're very I can just echo that because we are also like okay we're not 100 people but the uh it's a biotech company and it's uh like you have all the same people across the projects and everything is more or less priority so and and yeah I also like to uh to contribute on that uh there's questions. 00:01:55 : I have a question. So the question was about uh would your organizations um consider or um treat uh capacity as a strategic constraint or more as an afterthought. In an ideal case, let's assume it's an ideal case. company would put out the long-term strategy already. And then while knowing where to go, you would hire or develop people into the direction. And with every person you're hiring because someone else is leading for whatever reason or you have people you want to develop, you would already assess what's needed. the future and pharma, biotech, there are some areas you can do that better than others in medical well if you suddenly switch into a completely new indication the therapeutic area you normally need medics for that and it gets very fast threatening because you don't if you don't have the right people and I think there are other areas where you can still develop and somewhat work through. Not sure if that's the experience others. I would say I mean J&J it is considered a strategic constraint from the start. 00:03:29 : Okay. As soon as you start diving down or function then it kind of falls apart. So you presented this morning saying that there is a gap between thinking and the operational and so so my experience is that at the site level we have treated but I think the company level so it's interesting so uh um it's a good segue to uh the identification of root causes So what potentially preventing to really make use of the capacity as a strategic constraint. So uh what would you identify that I mean from my previous previous experience somehow the portfolio management and so they would say well we have to keep the portfolio management tools simple. Yeah, that's simple. Then you need another tool to do the more. Then of course again and so to to me my entire life has been in capacity management and it's always what the sweet spot in terms of planning that gives you information that you need so that you are not constrained by the horse is not there and yet not going to so much detail. 00:05:18 : consuming 10% of the program. So finding that sweet okay so it's not a matter of the tools integration there so it's so I think some tools enable it right if you square you can have planning and so yes you can have complex tool that that is enabling But I think most companies not and past it difficult to integrate those I think now with data and force you can data be better. Sorry in question even though if I have a tool I mean we saw it before um if maybe today I have enough resources but something changed there is delay there's a delay there is a new whatever coming in and I not I need suddenly two or three more people and let's say even if I have the money I'm not going to get those people tomorrow so it's going to be and our company's in Germany it's going to take at least three months and and then you know so how is it something we should then treat it more as a risk and and kind of a mitigate before but on the other hand I'm not going to hire the people which I might not need in the end so how how actually to deal with that someone has an idea on that question um so here the so it's I think a really concrete real case which happen 00:07:00 : I think often to have some delays in expected events and uh what you had envisions in terms of portfolio plan is yes the additional projects which need more more people whatsoever and I'm not going to get those tomorrow even though if I say yes let's hire I have money let's hire but it's going to take at least three months to get them on board and then yeah or otherwise it's a matter of purity across the the projects within your portfolio and you decide uh to take the resources from another projects and then you you adjust So then it's back to the portfolio and she needs to adjust the period. 12. Yeah. Uh so uh with the questions uh would uh uh capacity consider as a strategic constraints there is uh so it's in the decision making process so it's already uh at the stage you would uh look for a purity across your projects and just ensuring that if you say okay here's the purity the projects I would like to found that then you do not reach the point oh but uh we miss in fact the right people Sure. 00:08:48 : Okay. Maybe on the just considering for instance the the total number of effective but when we look at some specific then uh skills so when we identify that we have some uh gaps. So um the idea is try to prevent this. So before making a decision okay here is the priority and so now let's execute. So we are somehow it should be already in that uh stage of um prioritizations something uh to be so with the experience I add we tried to build a model and it was just excel based in order to take some data from all the ongoing projects and as well we had some highlevel estimates for the new projects the new initiatives that were in the pipeline and on which we had to decide if we wanted to make them active or not. Allowing to and after have a consolidated view of okay the resources which are used and the one which would be needed and then after uh being able to build some scenarios where uh okay we could execute the projects without facing any major gaps. 00:10:08 : Um but it's uh it was really something time consuming and always the the data uh the quality of the data was questioning because yeah so we are back to this uh data quality issue there's always something right quality or or resource I mean more people quality money quality will also time if you need them to um physically and we with our famous project management and triangle. Exactly. Time budget. Exactly. Yeah. Change something if you change another and I think in farmer industry you don't want to uh jeopardize quality. Definitely. It's no you can't definitely then it's time if you need to be on time. So what is the end? It's resources. Thank you. Maybe I should have asked the question initially but among who who is having a responsibility in portfolio management. So uh what what is your um how are you operating? So um on a daily basis we are um working very closely with customers who facing exactly these problems and most of them mentioned that their primary framework is not really budget but it's worth and um I really like ideas that were discussed today like the different levels like the strategic one the technical And I think the conflict you were also describing is typically a one in the tactical level where 00:11:53 : you face these conflict. He said there resources overallocated or there is resource bottlenecks. That is a very typical problem and I think there what if scenario options what can we do? Can we shift the project? Can it prolong it? Is that even an option? Can we get resources from other projects reallocated for and then what we also see is that the data has to be there of course about the first step but once the decision is so once data is there and the content is open so how do we get to and from our experience you have to have the right people sitting So we can decide that so there is impro maybe cross function resources. So um I think communication and sitting together of the decision makers point so that actually decisions that are discussed are actually valid options people and then of course yeah don't do with it and communicate that I think that's often what you see something under the radar over and eventually transparency is not there. 00:13:31 : So I think transparency having a good data quality and I think what also helps not to but to see okay what is it that most important to see what is the planning on the road no one is going to do it anyway especially with the challenge that it keeps changing can make perfect and it's just no one wants to do a would like would you like to to share your experience on so actually I'm like reading of the portfolio management of my company then the responsibility it is just for the like a direct post but the like project then the nondirect It mean the FD numbers are the out of the our like a team then each functional unit have the responsibility to manage that. So that is a little bit like a discrepancy between that. So due to that based on the prioritization or optimization we can have some of the list but uh so project team are located in the each like functional unit then they they don't want to they don't want to consider the priority at first but they want to have the less resources comparing with the previous year or those kind of the things. 00:15:10 : So it's very like a difficult to manage the total around the budget not only focusing on the like direct problem what issues I have then ideally I would like to make change that situation then if we have the responsibility for the total including the FP numbers then based on the some of the simulation or situation that we can propose those kind of things is very kind of situation Okay, thank you. Are you using any specific tools or uh yes we are doing the you are using the plan view system but the is not for the holistic anal analysis then we are doing okay I believe you raised your hand as well so And we are like that. We are started for five years ago. Now we are 500 people. So up really really fast and yeah we starting project and it's really hard because okay we are searching for people department searching for people but they're not searching the techniques the proteity strategy because we are not we are thinking in the department thinking okay this is the topic now we must find a solution for the warehouse find but without thinking about okay we should do a project for future challenging thank you um something I uh can share from my uh experience so uh because you're you're right you mentioned of a strategy whether something at a long term or reason and 00:17:54 : uh so capacity uh was uh something important in order to uh assess the possibilities to reach some financial target especially so the company has some uh quite um uh let's say significant ambitions to reach certain revenue by okay a certain a certain date uh by introducing some new products on the market. So which were we had a pool of projects ever already active projects or projects which were just an ideation phase and for each of the projects we had um ever high level resource estimate. So within um correspondence to high level skills because as you mentioned it's not possible to go uh too low in the in the details and uh so having this view for all the for all the projects then it was possible to identify uh having the financial targets in view. What additional project should we add in the pipeline in order to uh reach the financial targets and um and making sure that we keep or balance and uh between or capacities in terms of specific skills and the ones which are required for the the projects we introduce in the pipeline when we could start the projects when we will have some resources that will be free from the active projects. 00:19:32 : But um yeah, here again it uh was a really um um yeah complex um process and um yeah I would really be glad there to hear from you if you have a different way to proceed in case you have currently a similar approach or any other uh idea. So um yeah maybe u with um your solutions so you you have a more specific way to address such a need. So it's actually pretty similar. So like on a high level skill level what skills am I going to need in the future they not going to be there overnight and also exactly in the next three months. So um to find that skilled people um it's tough and also traced. So it's important to know um what is your spreadsheet what do you want to invest in and basically even if it's an invest because um and then you have an output over the next one to three years to know which skills you need because the projects you have a pipeline you want to start what skills do you need to um them to manage them and then to check okay do I have do I have the resources how many do I have to to hire um what do I have to to build them that is the strategic outlook part to see what do I need in the future. 00:21:02 : Yes. Thank you. So, so is it at at their end? Is it just a matter of tool? So, if every organization has the tool they would be able to address the need or is there something else? So, uh is it just a tool topic or governance? Governance. Yeah. And of course the hardest prioritizations are when you get requests from different therapeutic areas. But if it's within the same portfolio as a function on the side you can say okay decision we can't do all of this in Q1 and two area usually this is this is conflict like six month get result. The net result of that is that people on the floor are making the decision. They would be good work. So rather than having strategic decisions on time, you know what? this and I got that as a leader local and of course that's not the first but then I get back to the pool aspect which is the earlier you can identify those bottlenecks coming down the pipeline the earlier you can escalate it so that there's enough time to get a response from so in fact in agreement with both of my colleagues here problem in human resource management is that it is largely selfinicted that we have a kind of that only understands the budget and has no understanding of functional roles in not being fun. 00:23:09 : I'm a molecular conducive biologist. We are a nonfungeible resource money can be taken and given to I'd rather be taken from you in a heart. So in fact the entire focus is on what can be but what don't and it can be done rather easy is consolidate the portfolio think of few it doesn't have to be so granular and identify where you think your critical human resource lies they don't just you can with some degree of circumstances go and hire people. Not just because of the time lag, but because you're simply not allowed to hire that many people. This can all be essentially sol. And it's not an issue of a tool. It's an issue of enterprising folks and governments who are responsible for resources that there is more to Well, sometimes I have suspicion as well that you don't get the resource you need. You can you get the resources they can afford or HR can afford. I'm sorry. Sometimes I get the suspicion you're not given the resources you need. 00:24:51 : You're sometimes given the resources they can afford or HR can afford. I am very suspicious on that. I mean, I don't have they will never admit to it. But they will say these are the people we got on the market and you go like no this guy is free send your but too too expensive right I don't know I mean I have only the suspicion but maybe others have the same thing but I feel I mean I agree with When I've been living in the resource environment for large part of my career when I move to Salman I was told you need more resources to give you more Yes. So I had to be resourceful in many cases. I had some folks who different department of course but the first training was interesting. It was more was became part of the culture. in the business where I was in psych and this work and absorbed little bit of the more practical solution. It's it's essentially a small biochemist too, right? 00:27:03 : We we have to be able to work across functions and across you know why am I analyzing data today? You just have to do it. So I think it makes you if you're comfortable in that it must be very comfortable but it can be it's something I think you as an individual you have to be very communicative with your leadership and you have to manage their expectations what your output actually is and if you need training or you need support resources to to be very vocal about that. I personally my company has got a good culture around that even though we aren't the greatest at understanding capacity farther than a few months out sometimes um when we have issues but uh the culture is speak up when you need support or when you need to sacrifice a few weeks here to make something else happened and I think that matters a lot very agile thanks to the size of a company so we all know each other so well But I have to say I have made experience that people speak up too late. 00:28:06 : They are really trying and they kind of go oh although they knew even though the people knew the task could come planned in advance they've been up to late either it either they underestimate the the tasks or I don't know the reason to then something else changes right yeah and in please yeah I'm more thinking The industry is currently changing. There's a lot of pressure and there are a lot of reorgs and people are let go. So it's even more difficult for people to say, "Oh, I can't do it. It's too much." Because you want to have your head below the line, not to increase too loudly that you can't do. So it adds to the stay quiet. You're right. And slowly continue or continue or just think you were, you know, until you can't. Yeah. So, it's an hesitation to say no. So, no one wants to prevent or preserve. It's getting more difficult to say no. Exactly. Yeah. I think you made a really good point about the timing, right? 00:29:30 : every everything is solvable people. So I've been fighting most of my career with people scientist. It's not cool to spend time planning and forecasting. Um but the net result is that if you let the organization know plenty in advance they will submit for you as you stress you not be behind and then some head roll because people will say why earlier I think that could also do provide information not on a basis or a month basis Nobody can say that you did not raise your hands as a war six months from now. I think that the timing of raising your hands is important. I would maybe just question the communications media. So if it's just uh sending informations uh by email okay the person is supposed having received informations but there is still a question mark did that person really went through okay it's a the responsibility of that person but I think there's a critical issue I would uh still rather encourage to have a a oneonone or facetoface uh discussion yeah but back with the governance right yeah back at least provide that is and of course it's not it's your responsibility not only to flag it but to act towards it um any additional um so um we went through um let's say um the landscape with management of uh capacity as a strategic input for decision making. 00:31:53 : Um I don't know if from what has been discussed I'm not sure if we can say there is some good practices or someone ... [transcript truncated]